Sources, formulas & limitations

Report published June 9, 2026 · Data checked November 9, 2026 · Review by June 30, 2027.

Monthly arithmetic

Let M be the scheduled monthly benefit in today’s dollars, Y the January claiming year and N the number of years. The claiming interval runs from January Y through December Y+N−1.

A: payable = M × 0.78; monthly loss = M × 0.22; full-year loss = monthly loss × 12. Affected months = max(0, 12(Y+N) − max(12Y, 12×2032+9)). Cumulative loss = monthly loss × affected months.

B: payable = M × 0.715; monthly loss = M × 0.285. Replace the threshold with 12×2034, assuming reform starts in January 2034. This comparison assumes full payment beforehand and does not model an intervening OASI gap.

Interpret the numbers carefully

The monthly amounts apply only during reduced-payment months. If your claiming period ends before the threshold, cumulative loss is zero. Annual loss means twelve affected months, not necessarily your first calendar year. Retirement year alone cannot identify your actual claiming month.

The 78% is an aggregate financing ratio, applied uniformly here for illustration; it is not a determination of individual payment administration. The report projects a gradual decline to 62% in 2100. We do not interpolate that path: holding 78% constant understates losses relative to a declining-share path. Illustrations beyond 2100 extend the chosen arithmetic only, outside the report horizon.

Values are not discounted. No Medicare deductions, taxes, inflation adjustments, claiming-age rules, earnings tests, spousal rules or mortality are modeled. This is not an SSA benefit estimator. Input limits: $0–$1 billion monthly, whole claiming years 1900–2100, and 1–100 claiming years. Display rounds to cents after calculation.

Countdown = nonnegative calendar days to the chosen milestone divided by 365.2425 for approximate years. It is generated on the UTC build date and is not a live countdown.

This is an arithmetic illustration of the Trustees Report baseline, not a prediction. Congress may reform the program. All amounts are in today’s dollars: Medicare, taxes and inflation / cost-of-living adjustments are excluded.

Annual review

By June 30, 2027, review the next report and update OASI and combined OASDI depletion quarters, all payable shares including 2100, DI solvency, reform tax rates and benefit reductions, projection horizon, source links and verification dates. Rebuild to refresh remaining time.